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  • Writer's pictureMatt Wampler

The Wheat Price Surge: An In-depth Analysis of its Origins and Impending Impact on U.S. Restaurants

Wheat Field
Wheat Field

July 20th, 2023

As wheat futures in the U.S. continue to soar, reaching a three-week high of $7.3 per bushel, restaurant owners across the country are bracing themselves for a potential cost crunch. This surge, underpinned by an 8.5% rally marking the largest gain since 2012, is precipitating growing concerns about the ramifications on the U.S. food industry, particularly for businesses heavily reliant on wheat.

The Geopolitical Roots of the Surge

The escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine are at the heart of the wheat futures rally. The two countries are central players in the global grain market, and the disruptions caused by their strained relations have far-reaching effects on wheat prices. Recently, Russia issued a warning: any ships journeying to Ukraine's Black Sea ports would be considered potential carriers of military cargo. The implications for grain exports from Ukraine are severe and have stoked fears among traders and market analysts.

Moreover, Russia's decision to end the Black Sea grain deal—previously guaranteeing safe Ukrainian grain export through the corridor—poses a threat to the stability of the global grain supply chain. With Ukraine being one of the world's top wheat producers, the termination of this deal, particularly on the cusp of this year's harvest, could jeopardize the flow of wheat supplies around the world.

Domestic Weather Conditions Stoke the Flame

It's not just geopolitics causing a stir in the wheat futures market. At home, weather conditions are not playing in the U.S.'s favor. As dry weather extends its grip over key wheat-growing regions, there are growing concerns over yield expectations. The bleak outlook stands in stark contrast to the optimistic production predictions in the USDA’s recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

The Impending Impact on U.S. Restaurants

What does this surge in wheat futures mean for U.S. restaurants?

Quite a lot.

Futures prices influence spot prices - the immediate delivery cost. As the cost of wheat futures continues to rise, the spot prices are bound to follow suit. Once spot prices climb, restaurants—particularly those with wheat-based staples such as bread, pasta, and pizza—could experience a surge in operational costs.

The timeline for this impact is uncertain. It's largely dependent on how long the geopolitical tensions and unfavorable weather conditions persist. However, with no immediate resolution to these issues in sight, the pinch could start being felt sooner than later.


The international geopolitical landscape and domestic climatic conditions are driving a seismic shift in the U.S. wheat futures market. This fluctuation paints a worrying picture for U.S. restaurants that depend heavily on wheat supplies. These businesses must stay alert to the changing dynamics and adapt their strategies accordingly to manage these potentially higher costs.



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