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  • Matt Wampler

How Inflation & December's Fed Rate Hike Effects Restaurants


The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate increase, along with the ongoing issue of inflation, is causing major challenges for the restaurant industry. As operating costs rise, many restaurants are being forced to increase their menu prices in order to protect their bottom lines.


Inflationary conditions have made it difficult for restaurants to manage their budgets and keep prices competitive. According to the Consumer Price Index, food-at-home prices were up 13% in September compared to a year earlier, while food-away-from-home prices increased by 8.5% over the same period. Full-service menu prices rose by 8.8% and limited-service menu prices increased by 7.1% in September year-over-year.


The rising cost of ingredients is a major factor in the price increases. For example, the price of white truffle tagliatelle has gone up from $80 to $190 at 75 Main, a restaurant in Southampton, New York. The shortage of truck drivers, factory workers, and field workers has also contributed to higher food costs.


The Federal Reserve's interest rate increase is adding to the challenges faced by the restaurant industry. As interest rates rise, it becomes more expensive for businesses to borrow money, which can impact their profitability. Some restaurant owners are concerned that the rate increase could lead to a recession, which would further reduce consumer spending on dining out.


In order to combat inflation and the interest rate increase, many restaurants are making changes to their menus and operations. Some are shifting their ingredient sourcing to find more affordable options, while others are finding new ways to use formerly discarded materials. Some restaurants are also reducing portion sizes or offering cheaper menu items in order to keep prices competitive.


Despite these challenges, the restaurant industry is showing signs of recovery after being hit hard by the pandemic. Dine-in sales have largely reached 2019 levels, and many restaurants are benefiting from high consumer demand. However, the ongoing issue of inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase are causing major challenges for the industry, and many restaurants will need to continue making changes in order to remain profitable.

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