When every rack of ribs costs you money and every brisket needs 12+ hours of prep time, getting forecasting right isn’t just nice to have; it’s survival.
If you run a BBQ restaurant, you already know the stakes. You’re loading smokers at midnight based on your best guess about tomorrow. You’re hoping that the three-day weather forecast holds. You’re praying that Saturday’s rush looks like last Saturday’s rush. And when you’re wrong? You’re either throwing away perfectly good meat or watching customers walk out disappointed.
But what if you didn’t have to guess anymore?
Three BBQ brands, Dinosaur Bar-B-Que, Red White & Que Smokehouse, and Cali BBQ, discovered that AI-powered forecasting could transform their most challenging operational decisions into simple, daily playbooks. Here’s what happened when they stopped guessing and started knowing.
The BBQ Forecasting Problem: Why Smoking Meat Makes Everything Harder
Before we dive into the wins, let’s talk about why BBQ is uniquely brutal when it comes to prep forecasting.
Unlike most restaurant concepts, BBQ operators face a compounding timing problem. You can’t just fire another burger when you run out. When Mike Hazen, VP of Culinary and Supply Chain at Dinosaur Bar-B-Que, needs to load his smokers, he’s making a commitment 12-18 hours before the first customer walks through the door.
“With ClearCOGS help, they are able to cut down on time needed to plan the day ahead, knowing they’ll have accurate levels to load the smoker, along with other prep, already in front of them,” he explains.
The stakes? According to Dan Misuraca, owner of Red White & Que Smokehouse, the margin for error is razor-thin. Dan’s been smoking meat for eight years, and he’s lived the pain of both scenarios:
Over-prep: Waste money on expensive proteins that can’t be held beyond their shelf life
Under-prep: Watch customers leave when you run out of brisket at 5 PM on a Saturday
“I’ve been testing ClearCOGS against what I normally do,” Dan shares. “I would see some of those numbers and think, man that’s really low, but they would be dead on! I would have wasted 3 racks of ribs.“
Think about it…… if a rack of ribs costs $15 and he wasted 3 a day, that’s $45 per day. Might not seem like much BUT, what if he had 50 locations? That’s $2250 per day, $67,500 per month and wait for it…..$821,250 per year. And that’s just one protein item.
From “What Happened” to “What to Do Next”
Here’s where most restaurant analytics fall short: they tell you what already happened. Your POS tells you that you sold 47 briskets last Saturday. Great. But how many should you smoke next Saturday when there’s a home game, 15% chance of rain, and a local food festival competing for customers?
ClearCOGS doesn’t just analyze your sales history. The platform integrates:
- Sales trends across all your locations
- Weather forecasts and their correlation with customer behavior
- Local events and their historical impact on your traffic
- Seasonal patterns beyond simple 4-week trends
- Menu mix optimization based on real-time data
Then it does something revolutionary: it tells you exactly what to do about it.
As Shawn Walchef, Owner of Cali BBQ, puts it: “ClearCOGS will email you a daily prep sheet every day. All you have to do is print it out, and give it to your staff. It has accurate numbers on it about how much to make. They analyze every possible data point you could ever think of… basically all the things a human could never do.”
No calculations. No spreadsheets. No gut feel. Just clear, actionable guidance.
Real Results: The Numbers That Matter
Let’s talk about what actually happened when these three BBQ brands implemented ClearCOGS.
Red White & Que Smokehouse: Saving 3+ Racks of Ribs Daily
Dan Misuraca runs a tight operation. As a Marine veteran who cashed in his 401(k) to open his first restaurant, he wasn’t about to let waste eat into his margins. But even after eight years of experience, he was consistently over-prepping.
Daily Savings Breakdown:
- Pork Ribs: 3+ racks saved daily
- Other Meats: Significant reduction in waste across brisket, pulled pork, and chicken
- Sides and Desserts: Optimized prep across all menu items
Dan’s reaction? “Although I have been doing prep for 8 years, ClearCOGS reports are more accurate, saving me at least 3 racks of ribs daily, or more.”
The financial impact compounds quickly. Three racks of ribs daily across multiple locations, over months and years? That’s not just cost savings—that’s the difference between a profitable location and one that’s bleeding money.
Dinosaur Bar-B-Que: Legacy Managers Can Finally Take a Break
For Mike Hazen and the Dinosaur Bar-B-Que team, the win wasn’t just about waste reduction, it was about operational continuity.
The problem they faced: their best, most experienced managers were irreplaceable. These veterans knew exactly how much to load the smoker based on years of pattern recognition. Take them out of the equation for a week’s vacation, and the entire operation felt it.
“Additionally, with ClearCOGS Prep Sheets, legacy managers can take a well deserved week off, and know that the team will be prepared to handle business without them.”
This is the hidden value that most operators don’t talk about until they experience it: ClearCOGS turns every manager into your best manager.
Your newest, least experienced operator can now run a shift with the same precision as your 10-year veteran. Because they’re not relying on gut feel or years of pattern recognition, they’re following a data-driven playbook that’s been proven accurate across thousands of service periods.
Cali BBQ: Operational Efficiency That Lets You Focus on Guests
Shawn Walchef’s Cali BBQ has generated over $35 million in revenue since opening in 2008. He’s a sophisticated operator who understands both hospitality and technology. So when he talks about ClearCOGS, he focuses on something crucial: time.
The efficiency gain isn’t just about cutting food costs. It’s about reallocating your team’s most valuable resource; their attention.
As Shawn notes about the broader impact: “With ClearCOGS, we’re able to provide better service to the customers, because that person who was constantly jumping up and prepping again is now on the line serving customers, which obviously reduces mistakes, turn over times and just improves the service and the brand overall.”
When your kitchen manager isn’t buried in spreadsheets trying to figure out tomorrow’s numbers, they’re:
- Training new team members
- Ensuring quality control
- Actually talking to guests
- Solving real problems instead of forecasting problems
What Makes This Work: The Technical Edge You Can Actually Use
You’ve probably sat through enough sales pitches about “AI-powered” solutions that don’t actually solve real problems. So let’s break down what makes ClearCOGS different for BBQ operators specifically.
Ingredient-Level Forecasting
Most forecasting tools stop at the menu item level. They’ll tell you that you’ll sell 50 pulled pork sandwiches tomorrow. Fine. But how many pounds of pork shoulder do you need to smoke tonight? What about when some customers order it in a platter, some as a sandwich, and others by the pound?
ClearCOGS forecasts at the ingredient level. So you get the actual number you need to load in the smoker, not a menu-item count that requires mental math and guesswork.
Seamless Integration (No Rip and Replace)
Here’s what didn’t happen when these BBQ brands implemented ClearCOGS: they didn’t have to replace their POS. They didn’t have to retrain their entire staff on a new system. They didn’t shut down for a week while consultants fumbled around.
ClearCOGS integrates with your existing tech stack, Toast, Square, or whatever you’re currently using. The platform pulls data automatically, runs its analysis, and delivers your daily playbook via email every morning.
As Dan Misuraca confirms: “Onboarding and setup were extremely easy, and we had no problem integrating the product in with the team. It’s a pretty standard process, and everything is flowing smoothly.”
Average implementation time? Three weeks. That’s from kickoff to having accurate, actionable forecasts landing in your inbox every morning.
The Prep Sheet: Your Daily Playbook
This is where theory meets reality. Every morning, your managers receive an email with a prep sheet that tells them:
- Exactly how much of each protein to smoke overnight
- Precise quantities for sides, desserts, and accompaniments
- Batch sizes that account for shelf life and quality standards
- Adjustments based on today’s specific conditions (weather, events, day of week)
Print it. Hand it to your team. Execute.
That’s the entire workflow.
The Compound Effect: Why This Gets Better Over Time
Here’s something that surprised all three of these BBQ brands: ClearCOGS didn’t just work on day one. It got more accurate over time.
The AI learns from your specific operation. It understands your customer base. It picks up on patterns you didn’t even know existed. That Tuesday bump after Monday Night Football? ClearCOGS sees it. The way rain affects your lunch crowd differently than your dinner crowd? It factors that in.
Dan Misuraca experienced this firsthand. His initial reaction to the numbers was skepticism, they seemed too precise, too confident. But after testing ClearCOGS against his own eight years of experience, he realized the AI was seeing patterns he couldn’t.
The result is a compounding effect. Better forecasts lead to less waste. Less waste means better margins. Better margins give you capital to invest in growth. And as you grow, ClearCOGS scales with you, systemizing operations across every new location.
Beyond Cost Savings: The Strategic Advantages
Let’s zoom out from the tactical wins for a moment. Because while saving three racks of ribs daily is great, the strategic implications matter even more for multi-unit operators.
Systemize Operations for Scale
If you’re running 8-70 units, your biggest challenge isn’t food cost at one location. It’s consistency across all locations. How do you ensure that your Tulsa location operates with the same precision as your flagship in Dallas?
ClearCOGS solves this by creating a standardized operating procedure that’s based on data, not individual manager experience. Every location gets the same level of analytical sophistication, regardless of who’s running the shift.
Protect Profitability in a High-Cost Environment
Labor costs are up. Protein costs are up. Rent is up. Your customers’ tolerance for price increases? Not so much.
The only lever you can pull without alienating guests is operational efficiency. ClearCOGS delivers an average 40% increase in profit margins by optimizing the biggest variable costs in your operation: food and labor.
For BBQ specifically, where protein costs can represent 35-40% of COGS, even small improvements in waste reduction translate to massive bottom-line impact.
Reduce Management Stress and Improve Retention
Kyle Roadl, General Manager at a Jimmy John’s franchise using ClearCOGS, captures something every operator understands: “ClearCOGS has been a lifesaver. I can confidently say it has taken major stress out of our day-to-day lives!”
When your managers aren’t constantly firefighting inventory problems, they stay longer. They perform better. They’re actually managing instead of just reacting.
For BBQ operations where the learning curve is steep and good pit masters are hard to find, reducing turnover has a direct financial impact that’s hard to overstate.
The Implementation Reality: What Actually Happens
Let’s talk about what the first 90 days look like when you implement ClearCOGS at a BBQ restaurant.
Weeks 1-3: Onboarding and Integration
- ClearCOGS team connects to your POS (no disruption to operations)
- Historical data is analyzed to build initial models
- Custom prep sheets are configured for your specific menu
- Managers receive training (typically 1-2 hours total)
Weeks 4-8: Testing and Refinement
- Daily prep sheets start arriving via email
- Managers test ClearCOGS recommendations against their usual approach
- The AI learns your specific patterns and adjusts
- Most operators see measurable waste reduction in this period
Week 9+: Full Operational Mode
- Prep sheets become the standard operating procedure
- Accuracy continues to improve as the system learns
- Benefits compound across locations as you scale
Dan Misuraca tested ClearCOGS against his own methods during this period. His verdict? The AI was consistently more accurate—even when the numbers initially seemed counterintuitive.
Who This Works For (And Who It Doesn’t)
Let’s be real: ClearCOGS isn’t for everyone. If you’re a single-unit operation doing $1 million in annual revenue, you might not need this level of sophistication. Your experienced pit master probably has the patterns locked in their head.
But if you’re:
- Operating 8-70 units
- Planning aggressive expansion
- Struggling with consistency across locations
- Dealing with high management turnover
- Tired of watching expensive proteins go to waste
- Ready to systemize instead of just survive
…then ClearCOGS might be exactly what you need.
The sweet spot is multi-unit operators who understand that technology isn’t replacing the art of BBQ, it’s protecting the profitability that lets you keep making great BBQ.
The Bottom Line: From Reactive to Proactive
Here’s the fundamental shift that happened for Dinosaur Bar-B-Que, Red White & Que, and Cali BBQ:
Before ClearCOGS: Reactive operations. Teams scramble after problems show up. Over-prep to be safe, or under-prep and run out. Hope that your veteran managers never leave.
After ClearCOGS: Proactive operations. Daily plans anticipate demand. Pars are set before the day begins. Adjustments happen early so rushes feel routine.
As one operator put it: “It’s like running your restaurant is a test that you already have the answers to.”
The restaurant industry is moving in one direction: toward operations that are smarter, more efficient, and data-driven. The question isn’t whether you’ll adopt this kind of technology—it’s whether you’ll do it before or after your competitors.
For BBQ operators specifically, where timing is everything and waste is expensive, that question matters even more.
Getting Started
ClearCOGS works with hundreds of brands, delivering an average 55% waste reduction and 40% increase in profit margins, with a typical implementation timeline of just 3 weeks.
For BBQ operators tired of loading smokers based on gut feel, there’s a better way. One that’s already proven across every conceivable challenge the BBQ business can throw at it, from Marine veteran first-time restaurateurs to sophisticated multi-unit brands with locations across the country.
The prep sheet arrives every morning. The numbers are accurate. Your managers can finally take that vacation.
And you? You get to stop guessing and start knowing.
